Why This Matters to Distributors: Hotter weather helped boost September sales, but longer-term growth remained modest. HARDI warned that weak housing activity, rising interest rates and low consumer confidence could limit further gains, while customer payment times showed no unusual deterioration.
Sales at participating heating, air conditioning and refrigeration distributors increased 9% in September from a year earlier as hotter weather supported demand late in the cooling season.
Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International, known as HARDI, reported sales growth of 3.7% for the 12 months ending in September. That rate remained within the range recorded over the past two years, despite stronger recent monthly results.
“Temps have a diminishing impact on demand as we proceed through cooling season, but they certainly had an impact this year,” said Brian Loftus, HARDI’s senior market analyst. “Cooling degree days increased by more than 40% from September of 2025 with significant increases in five of our seven regions.”
Cooling degree days measure temperatures above a reference level and help indicate demand for air conditioning. HARDI did not quantify how much of September’s sales increase resulted from warmer weather.
Customer payment times remained consistent with previous Septembers. Days sales outstanding, a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills, was 38 days, comparable to September 2024 and September 2025.
“The DSO ticked-up from August but we believe that reflects the normal seasonal pattern, not any market deterioration,” Loftus said.
Despite September’s sales gain, HARDI cautioned that conditions did not point to a sustained acceleration in growth.
“The recent monthly sales growth has been encouraging, but the annual pace remains within the 2.5% to 4.5% range of the past two years,” Loftus said. “A breakout to the upside looks unlikely with existing home sales and new construction trending flat to down, interest rates rising and dismal consumer confidence.”
The report measures sales revenue rather than the number of products sold. The release did not separate the effects of price changes, sales volume or the types of products purchased.
Participation in HARDI’s monthly survey is voluntary, and market coverage varies by region. An independent organization collects and compiles the data, which can include products outside heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration.
HARDI represents more than 570 distributor members operating more than 5,000 branches. Those businesses serve residential and commercial contractors, along with maintenance customers at commercial, industrial, and institutional facilities.
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