Why This Matters to Distributors: Import-dependent distributors face rising transportation costs, tightening vessel capacity and growing pressure to secure inventory earlier. Companies that lock in freight capacity, diversify routing, and strengthen inventory planning will be better positioned for the fall selling season.
North American supply chains are entering the second half of 2026 under renewed pressure as an early wave of imports strains ocean capacity and pushes freight rates to their highest levels of the year.
June import volumes are projected to reach 2.25 million twenty-foot equivalent units, up 14.3% from a year earlier, according to Maersk. The carrier said retailers and distributors are frontloading inventory ahead of potential tariff changes, fuel price volatility, and peak-season surcharges. The increase comes ahead of the scheduled July 24 expiration of Section 122 tariffs, prompting many importers to accelerate shipments.
The surge has tightened capacity across the critical Asia-to-North America trade lane, where demand has driven Transpacific spot rates to their highest point of 2026. Space aboard vessels has become increasingly limited as importers compete for capacity ahead of the traditional fall shipping season.
To accommodate higher demand, Maersk has added seasonal capacity through its TPX Transpacific service, which is expected to operate through September. The carrier is advising customers to book shipments earlier and remain flexible on ports of entry and routing options.
Capacity pressures are also emerging on other major trade lanes. North Europe exports to the United States remained strong during the second quarter, while imports from India, the Middle East and Africa are expected to face constrained vessel space through July because of peak-season demand. Refrigerated exports from South Africa and apparel shipments from East Africa also are competing for limited capacity.
The ripple effects are extending well beyond the ports.
Maersk said drayage networks are becoming increasingly constrained as higher import volumes move inland, leading to greater volatility in rail coordination, terminal appointments and accessorial charges such as detention and storage. While truckload and less-than-truckload capacity remains loose, the carrier said the trucking market is beginning to show signs of tightening after a prolonged downturn.
Warehousing strategies also are evolving. Rather than adding broad capacity, companies are emphasizing inventory optimization, targeted automation, and greater use of third-party logistics providers to improve flexibility ahead of the fourth-quarter peak season.
At the same time, trade compliance is becoming a larger operational priority.
Maersk said U.S. Customs and Border Protection has increased scrutiny of Importer of Record requirements, including bond adequacy, ownership disclosures and import documentation. The carrier urged shippers to validate country-of-origin data and compliance documentation before cargo begins moving through the supply chain.
Air freight demand also remains elevated, driven by shipments of artificial intelligence infrastructure and other high-value technology equipment. Although capacity has recovered from earlier disruptions, rates remain above year-ago levels, while some shippers have shifted to sea-air services to balance cost and transit times.
Geopolitical risks continue to cloud the outlook despite easing tensions in the Middle East. Maersk said it has resumed limited vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz following recent diplomatic developments but will continue making routing decisions based on ongoing security assessments.
Overall, Maersk said North American supply chains remain fluid but warned that tightening capacity across key ocean, inland and logistics networks will require distributors to plan shipments earlier, strengthen inventory management and build greater flexibility into their transportation strategies during the remainder of 2026.
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