Artificial intelligence is beginning to change how businesses buy — and how distributors compete. A new report from global consulting firm Kearney finds that AI-powered “procurement agents” are starting to make purchasing decisions once managed by human buyers, setting up a major shift in the way industrial and wholesale suppliers sell online.
Kearney calls the emerging model “agentic commerce” — a system where AI anticipates needs, compares suppliers and pricing, and automatically executes purchases. The firm’s consumer research shows six in 10 U.S. shoppers expect to use AI shopping agents within the next year, and similar patterns are emerging in B2B channels as corporate buyers automate procurement to save time and costs.
“It’s no longer about having a digital catalog or e-commerce site. The question is whether your brand even shows up in an AI agent’s decision-making process, said Katherine Black, a partner in Kearney’s consumer and retail practice and lead author of the report.”
The shift could have far-reaching implications for distributors that rely on long-term customer relationships and negotiated contracts. In the agentic model, algorithms — not purchasing managers — determine which suppliers appear in a company’s workflow, at what price, and under what terms.
AI Adoption Segments
Kearney’s research identifies four segments influencing adoption:
- Early adopters (15%) use AI to automate repetitive tasks such as reordering consumables and MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) supplies.
- Price-driven pragmatists (35%) are motivated by guaranteed savings or dynamic pricing advantages.
- Skeptics (30%) want control over data privacy, supplier transparency, and final approval.
- Loyalists (20%) prefer familiar brands and human contact in purchasing decisions
- Despite these differences, most buyers want transparency and proof of savings — what Kearney calls the B2B equivalent of “smart shopping.”
Platforms Gain Power
Competitive advantage is shifting from traditional distributor catalogs to AI-enabled procurement platforms such as ChatGPT, Google Gemini, Coupa, and SAP Ariba, which aggregate data and connect buyers to multiple suppliers.
Kearney’s analysis suggests distributors could see earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) erosion of up to 500 basis points as pricing transparency increases and platform fees take hold. The firm estimates average selling prices could decline 8%, fulfillment costs could rise 10%–15%, and agent platforms could take about 4% per transaction.
The Marketing Shift
As AI systems control more discovery and purchasing, marketing dollars are likely to move “upstream” — toward the platforms where agents operate.
“The new storefront for distributors isn’t your website or your sales rep,” Black said. “It’s the algorithm that determines what your customer’s AI sees first.”
Becoming Agent-Preferred
Kearney advises distributors to prepare by becoming “agent-preferred suppliers.” That means structuring product data for machine readability, building open APIs for inventory visibility, offering transparent pricing, and ensuring reliable fulfillment.
“The next arms race in won’t be for shelf space or ad clicks,” Black said. “It will be for algorithmic preference — being the supplier an AI agent consistently selects.”
Kearney’s report frames agentic commerce as both a disruption and an opportunity. Buyers may gain convenience and efficiency, but distributors face tighter margins and the risk of invisibility in an AI-driven marketplace.
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