Confidence among U.S. chief executives jumped sharply in the third quarter of 2025, rebounding from a steep drop earlier in the year. The latest survey from The Conference Board and The Business Council showed CEO confidence, rising 15 points to 49 — a significant improvement from 34 in the previous quarter, though still just shy of the neutral 50 mark.
The survey, conducted between July 14 and 28 with responses from 122 CEOs, reflects cautious optimism amid easing trade tensions and progress in US-China negotiations. “Confidence has recovered but hasn’t yet returned to a positive outlook,” said Stephanie Guichard, senior economist at The Conference Board. “CEOs’ improved views signal less worry over tariffs and trade disputes, but uncertainty remains.”
CEOs’ assessments of the current economy brightened considerably. Just 34% said conditions were worse than six months ago — a sharp decline from 82% in the spring. Meanwhile, 30% expect economic conditions to improve over the next six months, up from 18%, while another 30% foresee a downturn, down from 64%. Industry-specific conditions remained more cautious, with 38% reporting a decline in their sectors.
The threat of a recession also eased, with only 36% of CEOs expecting one within 12 to 18 months, compared to 83% in the previous quarter.
Geopolitical instability and cyber risks have overtaken trade and tariffs as the top concerns for CEOs. Meanwhile, hiring qualified workers is becoming a bigger challenge, with more CEOs reporting recruitment difficulties. Notably, 34% of CEOs plan to cut their workforce over the next year — the highest share in recent quarters — while 27% expect to add employees.
Wage growth is expected to tick up slightly, with 61% of CEOs planning raises of 3% or more over the next year, up from 58% in Q2. Capital investment remains muted: more CEOs anticipate reducing spending than increasing it, and most plan no changes to their budgets.
CEOs cited rising costs from suppliers, materials, and technology as major pressures. To manage expenses, 93% are turning to productivity-boosting technology, 89% are negotiating with suppliers, and 83% are focusing on workforce upskilling. Two-thirds (64%) plan to pass those costs on to consumers, while few intend to absorb the expenses or cut research and development.
Roger W. Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council, emphasized the cautious tone: “While CEO confidence is on the rise, companies remain focused on managing costs and navigating an unpredictable environment.”
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