New orders for U.S. manufactured durable goods surged in March, rising 9.2% to $315.7 billion, according to the U.S. Census Bureau’s latest report released late last week. The increase marks the third consecutive monthly gain and follows a revised 0.9% rise in February. Compared to March 2024, new durable goods orders were up 12.8%, signaling robust demand across major manufacturing sectors.
Transportation equipment led the March uptick, with orders jumping 27.0% to $124.6 billion, largely reflecting a big jump in order for Boeing Co.’s commercial aircraft. Excluding transportation, new orders were flat for the month, suggesting most of the growth was concentrated in a few key industries. When defense orders are excluded, new orders rose 10.4%, reflecting strong commercial market activity.
“Today’s report feels like the calm before the storm,” consulting firm KPMG said in a note. “While some categories were consistent with business efforts to beat tariff-related price increases, the core capital goods orders and shipments numbers overall were nothing out of the ordinary.
“Anecdotally we are hearing of cancelled or delayed spending plans, hiring freezes and other responses to the jump in uncertainty. We should begin to see this materially affect the hard data in April.”
Shipments of manufactured durable goods, which measure goods moving through the supply chain, rose slightly by 0.1% in March over February to $293.0 billion. This followed a 1.3% increase in February. On a year-over-year basis, shipments were up 5.5%. Primary metals shipments, up six of the past seven months, led the monthly gain with a 0.8% increase to $27.8 billion.
Unfilled orders for durable goods, a key indicator of future production strength, rose 2.0% in March to $1.43 trillion, marking the eighth increase in the past nine months. Transportation equipment again drove the growth, with unfilled orders rising 3.1% to $931.6 billion. Compared to a year ago, total unfilled orders were up 6.7%.
Inventories of manufactured durable goods grew 0.1% to $533.3 billion in March, extending a five-month streak of increases. Machinery inventories rose 0.2% to $94.5 billion. Overall, durable goods inventories were up 3.2% compared to March 2024, reflecting ongoing efforts by manufacturers to meet steady demand.
In the capital goods segment, non-defense new orders soared 29.4% to $114.9 billion, though shipments fell 1.9% to $86.1 billion. Nondefense capital goods unfilled orders rose 3.4% to $875.6 billion. By contrast, defense-related new orders fell 9.4% to $12.2 billion.
The U.S. Census Bureau revised its February manufacturing data, reporting total new manufacturing orders at $593.3 billion, slightly below the previously estimated $594.0 billion.
The increase in unfilled orders points to longer lead times across the industrial sector, creating new challenges for distributors. According to a research note from Baird Equity Research, extended backlogs are likely to pressure distributors to strengthen their logistics and customer service capabilities. “Distributors with more sophisticated supply chain visibility and diversified inventory management strategies will be better positioned to offset delivery risks and maintain customer loyalty,” Baird analysts wrote in an April 2025 manufacturing sector update.
Meanwhile, inventory levels rose only modestly in March, suggesting that manufacturers and distributors are proceeding cautiously despite strong order activity. In a recent outlook, Oxford Economics noted that businesses remain wary of overcommitting inventories given persistent economic uncertainty and fluctuating customer demand. “While demand indicators are healthy, elevated borrowing costs and global trade risks are making firms more conservative in inventory replenishment strategies,” said Oren Klachkin, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Together, the trends in unfilled orders and cautious inventory growth reflect a manufacturing sector that is expanding but still navigating supply chain volatility and broader economic headwinds.
The Census Bureau will release the next monthly durable goods report, covering April data, on May 27.
