Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International said distributor sales declined in November, extending a slow start to the 2025–26 heating season, according to the association’s latest monthly TRENDS report.
Sales among HARDI distributor members fell 2.9% in November 2025 compared with the same month a year earlier. The decline followed a 1% year-over-year drop in October, signaling softer demand during what is typically a key period for heating-related equipment and supplies.
Despite the November pullback, distributor revenues remained higher on a longer-term basis. HARDI reported that sales for the 12 months through November 2025 increased 3.8% from the prior year.
“Heating season is off to a slow start with the 1% sales decline during October and then a 2.9% decline during November,” said Brian Loftus, macroeconomic and residential market analyst at HARDI. He said October was a difficult comparison and noted that November had one fewer billing day than the prior year. Adjusting for those factors, HARDI estimates underlying sales growth of 2.3% for the month.
The report showed stable customer payment trends. Days’ sales outstanding, a measure of how quickly distributors collect payment, was less than 40 days in November, in line with the same period a year earlier.
“While the recent sales results may raise concerns about market health, we are pleased to see the DSO remains steady at a healthy rate,” Loftus said.
HARDI said distributor sales growth remained near 4% for most of 2025, supported by price increases of about 5%. Unit demand, however, was flat to down during the year, reflecting stagnant existing home sales and uneven weather patterns that limited cooling demand across much of the U.S.
Even with softer demand, inventory conditions showed signs of improvement. HARDI reported that sales-to-inventory ratios increased in most regions, indicating distributors are gradually bringing inventory levels back into balance.
The HARDI TRENDS report is based on voluntary monthly sales data submitted by member distributors. Participation varies by region, and the data is collected and compiled by an independent third party.
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