A widening shortage of skilled trades workers could leave nearly 1.4 million jobs unfilled by the end of the decade and drain an estimated $325.6 billion from the U.S. economy each year, according to a new economic impact report released Thursday by Bring Back the Trades Inc. and sponsored by the Northeast distributor F.W. Webb Company.
The study, conducted by Parker Strategy Group using labor data compiled by the University of New Hampshire from U.S. Department of Labor sources, examined seven core occupations: electricians, mechanics, plumbers, welders, construction workers, heating and air-conditioning technicians, and carpenters.
Those trades account for about 5.6 million jobs today and generate an estimated $1.3 trillion in annual economic activity, the report said. By 2030, projected openings across those roles could total 1,390,165 positions. The shortage, the analysis found, would ripple across the broader economy, resulting in an estimated 2.76 million total jobs lost annually and $71.3 billion in foregone federal, state and local tax revenue.
“This isn’t just a report — it’s a call to action,” said Steve Turner, founder and chief executive of Bring Back the Trades. “The shortage in the skilled trades impacts every sector of our economy. We must act now to fill the current need, and share solutions on how to empower the next generation of skilled workers.”
The report breaks down the projected gap and its economic consequences by region and state, concluding that while the shortage is national in scope, some areas face especially acute impacts. The South Atlantic region, for example, could see 292,663 positions go unfilled and $60.4 billion in annual GDP losses. In the Pacific region, the projected annual GDP impact is $66.9 billion tied to 238,744 open jobs. The West South Central and Mountain regions also show significant projected losses.
Nichole Parker, managing principal of Parker Strategy Group, said the modeling assessed both the direct employment gap in the trades and the secondary effects that occur when projects are delayed, maintenance is deferred and services cannot be delivered.
“Across the United States, the shortage of electricians, welders, plumbers and other skilled workers is more than a workforce issue — it’s an economic imperative,” Parker said.
Using Bureau of Labor Statistics data, the report estimates that construction occupations could account for the largest share of the gap, with 976,980 projected openings by 2030. Carpenters and electricians follow with 425,345 and 411,400 projected openings, respectively. Plumbers, welders, mechanics and HVAC technicians collectively account for hundreds of thousands more anticipated vacancies.
Shana Brunye, chief operating officer and research director at Bring Back the Trades, said the analysis is intended to show that the consequences of the workforce gap extend far beyond individual job sites.
“Closing the skilled trades gap is not just about filling jobs — it’s about sustaining industries, strengthening communities, and creating opportunities for the next generation,” Brunye said.
For F.W. Webb Company, which operates more than 100 locations across nine Northeastern states supplying plumbing, heating and HVAC contractors, the issue is already visible in day-to-day business, said Sean Davis, vice president of marketing.
“Solving the skilled trades shortage requires real data and real collaboration,” Davis said. “By quantifying the economic impact of the gap, this report gives leaders, educators and employers the insight they need to take meaningful action.”
Bring Back the Trades, a nonprofit based in Rye, New Hampshire, said it plans to expand the research through 2027 to examine additional trade roles. The organization will host a public webinar Feb. 11 to review the findings and discuss regional implications.
Turner said the report is aimed at policymakers, educators, families and employers alike.
“We challenge students, families, educators, employers and policymakers to recognize this economic imperative,” he said. “We must mobilize now to invest in expanded training pathways and inspire the next generation to pursue these essential careers that keep America’s economy strong.”
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