Wholesalers and their customers stockpiled goods in March, the latest month for which U.S. Commerce Department data is available, trying to rebuild their inventories before tariffs raised prices. But what lies ahead?
The April report, due out June 9, may well show similar increases in wholesale sales and inventories, President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement April 2 likely drove companies to bring in imported goods before those levies were set to take hold, says Alex Chausovsky, director of analytics and consulting for Bundy Group, an investment bank.
“Beyond that, these effects should start to wane, especially considering the 125% pullback in U.S./China tariffs for (at least) 90 days announced in early May,” he says.
This advance buying could result in lower sales for distributors later in the year, but that could be offset by economic growth, Chausovsky says. Reasons for optimism, he says, include progress in trade talks with China that could carry over to other countries, the Trump administration’s ongoing easing of regulations on businesses, and tax cuts working their way through Congress.
Referring to business-friendly provisions in the tax bill proposed by congressional Republicans, he says, “The accelerated depreciation and R&D [research and development] credits alone could prove to be major positive catalysts for distributors in the latter half of 2025,” Chausovsky says.
Growth is especially strong for durable goods
U.S. wholesale sales totaled $697.9 billion in March, an increase of 0.6% from revised February figures and 6.1% from March 2024.
Evidence that tariff fears contributed to this growth is the especially substantial increase in sales of durable goods, which increased 1.0% from February and 8.5% from March 2024 to $338.4 billion. Merchandise like computer equipment (up 21.1% over March 2024) and electrical products (ahead 20.9%) can more easily sit on warehouse shelves that non-durable goods like drugs (up 13.4% year over year) and groceries (up 4.3%).
Overall, non-durable goods sales totaled $359.5 billion in March, 0.3% above February’s revised figure and 3.9% more than in March 2024.
Despite the increased sales, wholesalers’ inventories increased in March, a sign they too were stockpiling goods to avoid paying higher prices later if tariffs kick in. Wholesale inventories totaled $907.5 billion in March, an increase of 0.4% from February and 0.7% from the revised March 2024 level.
Because sales increased more than inventory additions year over year, the sales/inventory level stood at 1.30 in March 2025 versus 1.35 a year earlier.
For the 12 months through March 2025, wholesaler inventories were up 0.1%.
“While this may not be impressive at first glance, it’s the first time annual growth for inventories has been in positive territory since early 2024,” Chausovsky says. “First quarter inventories were up 1.5% compared to the first quarter of last year, indicating the momentum in the annual trend will persist in the months to come. This, and the higher growth in durables versus non-durables, indeed corroborates the notion that companies are stocking up to mitigate the inflationary impact of tariffs on their future cost basis.”
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Don Davis, former editor-in-chief of Internet Retailer magazine and Vertical Web Media, is a freelance writer based in Chicago. His experience in retail and distribution goes back to his childhood when he worked in the toy wholesale business founded by his father and two uncles and in their discount department stores located throughout the New York metropolitan area.