The famous Gartner Hype Cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology’s lifecycle, starting with “Technology Trigger” and ending with “Plateau of Productivity.” I read a lot of hype claiming that AI is a lot of hype and the argument typically goes like this:
“AI is in the ‘Peak of Inflated Expectations’ in the Gartner Hype Cycle. The ‘Trough of Disillusionment’ is coming soon, in which companies will be very disappointed in the results they’re really getting from AI.”
In the 1980s, there was a hype cycle about symbolic AI. Today, though, the AI is real; we are nowhere near the “Peak of Expectations,” and we won’t face a “Trough of Disillusionment” either.
Here’s why: AI is neither new nor is it a specific type of technology. Sci-fi writers have contemplated concepts of artificial intelligence since E.M. Forster penned “The Machine Stops” in 1909. The Turing Test was posited by Alan Turing in 1950. Turing’s test specified that generative AI would be achieved when it was impossible to distinguish interactions between a computer and a human being. That was three-quarters of a century ago.
AI is not a category of technology in the same way as smartphones, personal computers, ecommerce and countless other innovations we’ve experienced over the years. AI is a whole new form of technology – it’s more similar to the semiconductor revolution, or the development of the telephone and automobile. AI’s effects and implications are so sweeping and dramatic that the Gartner Hype Cycle isn’t useful to evaluate it.
This is not to disparage the effects of other amazing technological breakthroughs. Personal computers and the internet have transformed how we live and work. eCommerce has fundamentally revolutionized how we do business and has had enormous effects on supply chains and retail stores. Smartphones have taken those innovations to new levels.
But AI profoundly affects, improves and revolutionizes all preceding technologies; plus, it’s going to enable unimagined innovations that we can’t even fathom today. In this way, it’s more akin to the invention of electricity than it is the internet. In 2018, Google CEO Sundar Pichai went even further, asserting that “AI is one of the most important things humanity is working on. It is more profound than, I dunno, electricity or fire.”
AI Learns on Its Own: What Happens to Our Jobs?
The distinguishing feature of AI compared to every previous technology in history is that it learns and improves on its own, faster forever. And this ultimate expression of software will soon find its hardware match: We can hardly fathom how the combination of quantum computers and artificial intelligence will change our world and our future.
Legendary futurist Ray Kurzweil has long predicted that AI will pass the Turing Test by 2029. In a recent interview, he says he may have missed it by a year: It could be 2028. He believes that by 2045, computers will achieve singularity, in which they are smarter than all human brains combined.
These developments, whenever they happen, will have dramatic impacts on business. By 2029, AI will be able to do most white-collar jobs better than humans can, with none of our limitations: no sick days, no demands for a salary, no breaks, no HR problems.
It will take a while for AI to replace the bulk of blue-collar jobs, but that’s coming – it’s not hard to imagine most vehicles under autonomous control, nor is it hard to accept that this will make the roads safer. The use of robots in factories and distribution centers is widespread and growing. And who would you rather have diagnose your MRI? A human doctor who has looked at several hundred of them or an AI system that has evaluated every MRI ever made and knows the diagnoses and outcomes for all of them?
The day is coming when there will be few jobs humans can do better than AI. This is unprecedented. Previous technological revolutions have created more jobs than they’ve cost, at least in the long run. But when AI can do everything better than humans, what are we to do?
You Must Become an Expert
No matter who you are and what you do for a living, you must understand AI. Professionally, you need to keep up with it to plan your own career. If you’re a parent, you need to be informed so you can provide sound advice to your children about their educations and professional development.
Business leaders face a mandate to keep up with the technology and embrace it so they can meet customers’ growing expectations and competitors’ capabilities. No technology has ever evolved as quickly as AI and so it’s harder to stay current. You must aggressively and continuously invest in your knowledge.
Be sure that you sign up for our upcoming conference, Applied AI for Distributors. It’s June 4-6, 2024, in Chicago, and we’re bringing together world-class keynote speakers and more than 30 technology companies that will explain how they use AI to provide new tools and capabilities for distributors.
From a talk on managing cybersecurity in the age of AI to learning how Grainger is adopting the technology to hearing the latest predictions from AI futurist Zack Kass, former Head of Go-to-Market at OpenAI, this is the event specifically designed to help distribution executives stay ahead of competitors.
There are three tracks so many companies are bringing three people – or more. We offer a discount for such companies and another break for five or more attendees. Go to www.appliedaifordistributors.com for more information and to register.
Ian Heller is the Founder and Chief Strategist for Distribution Strategy Group. He has more than 30 years of experience executing marketing and e-business strategy in the wholesale distribution industry, starting as a truck unloader at a Grainger branch while in college. He’s since held executive roles at GE Capital, Corporate Express, Newark Electronics and HD Supply. Ian has written and spoken extensively on the impact of digital disruption on distributors, and would love to start that conversation with you, your team or group. Reach out today at iheller@distributionstrategy.com.