Sales at heating, ventilation, air conditioning, and refrigeration (HVACR) distributors declined in January, reflecting seasonal demand patterns and fewer billing days compared with the same month last year, according to new data from Heating, Air-conditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) .Distributor sales fell 5.9% in January 2026 compared with January 2025, based on HARDI’s monthly report, which tracks performance among HVACR distributors across North America. The report is widely used as a barometer of demand in the HVAC supply chain.
The decline was partly due to a calendar difference. January 2026 had one fewer billing day than January 2025, which reduced total sales volume.
“A sales decline of more than 5% is a disappointing way to start the year, but this year has one less billing day than January of 2025,” said Brian Loftus, macroeconomic and residential market analyst at HARDI. “We estimate the sales decline would have been closer to 1.4% with the same number of billing days.”
Despite the monthly decline, distributor sales over the longer term remained positive. Annual sales growth for the 12 months through January 2026 increased 2.3% according to the report.
Payment trends remain stable
The report also tracks distributor Days Sales Outstanding (DSO), a measure of how long it takes customers to pay invoices.
DSO averaged 39.4 days in January, compared with 43 days in January 2022, 2023, and 2024.
“The recent DSO trends are not raising any red flags,” Loftus said, noting that payment cycles remain stable despite broader economic uncertainty.
The stability comes as the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates six times during the past 18 months, a move intended to support economic growth after an extended period of higher borrowing costs.
Demand early in the year tends to be slower for HVAC distributors as contractors move through the winter season before spring construction and summer cooling demand increase equipment sales.
“The early months of the year are the sleepy time for our industry where demand has been treading water,” Loftus said.
He added that recent interest-rate cuts may begin supporting economic activity in coming months.
“There have been some early signs that the rate cuts are helping to wake our economy,” Loftus said. “Hopefully those economic green shoots keep growing, like seeing leaves on trees during the next couple of months.”
Based in Columbus, Ohio, HARDI represents more than 570 HVACR distributors operating at more than 5,000 branch locations, along with 600 suppliers and service providers across North America and Latin America. Distributor members sell equipment, parts and supplies to contractors and maintenance teams serving residential, commercial, and industrial markets.
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