Durable goods orders in June were buoyed by data center construction to support artificial intelligence projects and increased tariffs raising prices. Analysts foresee growth in the second half of 2025, although uncertainty clouds the sentiment among manufacturers.
Total durable goods shipments increased by 0.5% in June over May, the U.S. Census Bureau reported Friday, while new orders declined 9.3%. That decline in new orders followed the upwardly revised 16.5% increase in May, reflecting large orders for Boeing Co. aircraft that month, which overshadowed more normal activity in June. Compared to June 2024, shipments were up 1.2% and new orders up 1.6%.
Excluding transportation, new orders in June were up 0.2%, above expectations, says Benjamin Shoesmith, senior economist at consulting and accounting firm KPMG. However he says, that increase “looks more solid than it may appear, as rising costs of tariffs on inputs could be starting to buoy those gains.” In other words, as companies raise prices to cover higher tariffs imposed by the administration of President Donald Trump the dollar value of orders rises faster than units ordered.
Shoesmith notes that two recent surveys of manufacturer sentiment, the S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) and the manufacturing PMI survey from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) suggested contraction in that crucial sector for distributors.
“That tracks with how investment decisions have been whipsawed by trade tensions and the uncertainty surrounding them,” he says.
Alex Chausovsky, director of analytics and consulting for Bundy Group, an investment bank, says tariff uncertainty “weighed heavy on new orders of durable goods in June, while shipments of previously ordered goods were less affected. The impact on new orders isn’t surprising given how hesitant businesses were to act in anticipation of the Aug. 1 deadline set by President Trump.
“Now, at the end of July, we have additional clarity on what trade deals with some of Americas largest trading partners look like,” Chausovsky says. He said recent agreements with several major trading partners, including the European Union, United Kingdom and Japan, along with the congressional passage of the administration’s tax-and-spending bill “should relieve some of the pressure on new orders in the coming months.”
Wholesale sales forecast for 2025 and 2026
U.S. wholesale trade of durable goods will end 2025 up 3.7% and increase by 3.7% again in 2026 before slowing to 1.5% in 2027, according to ITR Economics, which foresees a major economic downturn ahead in the early 2030s.
Growth this year will be driven by “a generally solid consumer base with rising real incomes and stable business finances,” including corporate profits that are broadly higher than before the COVID-19 pandemic, says Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at ITR Economics.
“Economic uncertainty amongst businesses and consumers poses a downside risk in the near term to wholesale trade volumes, as it may delay some spending—but we expect the majority of this activity will ‘catch up’ rather than being permanently canceled,” Saidel-Baker says. “Overall, our leading indicators point to growth, albeit a more tepid pace of growth than many wholesalers and distributors would prefer.”
Durable goods orders held up in most categories
While the unusual May sale of airplanes by Boeing skewed downward June’s results in total orders for durable goods and orders for capital goods meant to be used for many years, most other categories showed growth in both shipments and new orders.
The computers and electronic products category was among the leaders in new orders in June, likely reflecting the ongoing strong demand for equipment for data centers to support processing of AI applications.
