Why This Matters to Distributors: HVAC distributors posted their first year-over-year monthly sales decline of the cooling season, but the results may not be as weak as they appear. HARDI says one fewer billing day accounted for much of the decline, suggesting underlying demand remained stable. The next several months will determine whether distributors can sustain annual sales growth through the peak summer selling season.
Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) reported Monday that distributor sales declined 4.8% year over year in May, reflecting a slower start to the industry’s peak cooling season.
The decline marked the first meaningful month of the summer selling season for HVAC distributors. However, HARDI said the results were heavily influenced by the calendar, as May 2026 had one fewer billing day than May 2025.
“We estimate sales would have been about flat or comparable year over year with the same number of billing days,” Brian Loftus, HARDI’s senior market analyst, said in the association’s monthly TRENDS report.
Loftus acknowledged the headline results were disappointing but said they overstated the market’s weakness.
“Almost a 5% sales decline is a lousy start for the first meaningful month of cooling season, but it is not as weak as the headline,” he said.
Despite the monthly decline, sales for the 12 months ending May increased 2.6% from the previous 12-month period, indicating the market continues to post modest annual growth.
The report also showed distributors collected payments more quickly than in recent years. Days sales outstanding, a measure of how long customers take to pay invoices, fell to less than 38 days in May, compared with about 40 days during the same month from 2022 through 2024.
Loftus said warmer weather helped boost demand in parts of the country, particularly the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
“An early start to cooling season got sales off and running in our Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions,” he said. “With a lot of difficult weather comparisons across the country during the next couple of months, we need that summer magic to cook up some demand, or our annual sales growth will remain in the low single-digit range.”
The May report suggests weather will play an outsized role in determining HVAC distributor performance through the remainder of the summer. Cooling equipment sales typically account for a significant share of annual revenue, making June through August the industry’s most important selling period.
HARDI’s monthly TRENDS report is based on voluntary sales data submitted by distributor members. The association represents more than 570 HVACR distributors operating more than 5,000 branch locations across North America and Latin America.
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